Course Description:
Activists and advocates for economic development and political reform often call for greater transparency. But what does transparency really mean? And what are its consequences? In this quantitative-research course, we address these questions with attention to a specific facet of transparency: the dissemination of economic data.

The course is divided into three parts. First, we examine measures of different facets of transparency. Second, we consider the consequences of economic transparency for political stability. We study mass unrest, coups, transitions to democracy, democratic breakdown, and leader survival. Third, we consider why governments choose to disclose data. We consider economic explanations, looking at the impact of transparency on investment. We also look at the contrasting motivations of democratic and autocratic leaders.

No previous experience is expected. The only prerequisite is a passion for learning – and an interest in numbers. Most of the course employs quantitative data. If you would like to use statistics in an applied setting, this is the course for you.

Indeed, one of the course goals is to teach students how to conduct research using quantitative data, and how to write a scholarly research paper using such data.

Students will be given exercises throughout the semester to develop their own research projects. Hopefully, the students will eventually publish their own original research on a question pertaining to international politics and economic development. Previous students who have taken a similar course have published their research in peer-reviewed academic journals. The short-run goal is, of course, to complete the requirements for the junior paper.

Where you go with your project from there is up to you. Typically it takes me about two years to polish a draft of a paper suitable for submission to a journal. At that point, the paper faces tough (anonymous) reviewers who offer criticism and, ultimately, a judgment about whether to publish the research.

Note that some of the readings for the first week of the course are special. They are the results of research conducted by undergraduate students who took a course just like yours. You too can pursue publishable research in international political economy, and your path to this goal can begin in this class...

Learning Goals:

(1) How to manage data (using STATA)
(2) How to write a do-file in STATA
(3) How to write a clear, concise abstract
(4) How to conduct quantitative research in political economy
(5) How to write a research paper
(6) How to prepare papers for conferences and journal submission
(7) How to present quantitative research
(8) How to share with and receive feedback from colleagues working on similar projects

Grading:
Students will receive two grades – one for the junior paper and one for the research seminar class. The research seminar class grade will be based on the completion of weekly writing assignments and class participation (including class presentations).

Research Seminar Requirements:

This section has three parts: (1) Short writing assignments, (2) Class presentation, and (3) Long writing assignment (the junior paper).

Note that the research seminar class grade will be determined by completion of weekly writing assignments and class participation & attendance – including your presentation and your attention to the presentations of others.

(1) Short writing assignments:

Perhaps the most important part of the writing process is the pain of re-writing, re-writing, and re-writing,... and re-writing. I intend these short assignments to build on each other week by week. For several assignments, you will revisit previous assignments, revising your earlier drafts and adding more material. Eventually, you will build your final paper from the elements in the short writing assignments.



• February 11: Key variables. What is your primary dependent variable of interest? (What are you explaining?) What is your primary independent variable of interest? (What do you hypothesize does the explaining?) List 20 peer-reviewed publications that use your variables (10 articles for each variable).
  
  
• February 18: Annotated bibliography. Find at least 20 academic articles related to your *dependent* variable of interest. Provide a summary sentence linking the main finding of the article to your research interests.
  
  
• February 25: Finding data. Pick one of the studies you found last week and get the relevant data used. To make your life much easier, try to find an article with an available replication dataset. For your assignment, provide the mean, median, standard deviation, minimum value, and maximum value of the dependent variable.
  
  
• March 4: Example cases. Go through the dataset from last week and pick out some interesting cases. Explain why you are choosing these cases (discuss them in terms of the distributions of your independent and/or dependent variables).
  
  
• March 11: Replication. Pick one of the studies you found last week and replicate the results published using available data. This assignment will be much easier if you are working with an article with an available replication dataset.
  
  
• March 25: (Preliminary) Presentations. Rough outline: (1) Research question, (2) Hypothesis, (3) Methodology, (4) Results (if any are available), (5) Conclusion (you probably won't have one yet!)
  
  
• April 1: Multivariate regression: Just do it.
  
  
• April 8: Abstract! (1) Research question, (2) Hypothesis, (3) Methodology, (4) Result, (5) Conclusion (150 words)
  
  
• April 15: Put it together! (1) abstract, (2) introduction, (3) background (remember the annotated bibliography?), (4) example cases, (5) descriptive data – provide a BAR GRAPH or equivalent, (6) multivariate results, (7) conclusion
  
  
• April 22: Learn from each other. Share comments on each other's drafts.
  
  
• April 29: Final Presentations

  Nota bene:
  All written assignments are due electronically by 10am on the date listed above at my email address: jrv@princeton.edu. Longer assignments should be double-spaced with 12-point font and (at least) 1 inch margins. The font size is for my old eyes. The spacing and margins are for my comments.

  For all assignments and class conduct, please recall the Princeton Honor Code.

  FOR EACH ASSIGNMENT, YOUR FILE **MUST** BE NAMED:
  
            WWS404_LASTNAME_####,
  
  WHERE "LASTNAME" REPRESENTS YOUR LAST/FAMILY NAME, AND "####" REPRESENTS THE MONTH & *DUE* DATE.
  
  FOR EXAMPLE, THE FIRST ASSIGNMENT FOR A STUDENT NAMED Joann Gayoung Kim WOULD BE SAVED AS: WWS404_KIM_0211
  
  FOR A STUDENT NAMED Sumegh Sodani, THE SECOND ASSIGNMENT WOULD BE SAVED AS: WWS404_SODANI_0218

  You see that I used boldface and CAPS up there. That's because I am trying to grab your attention. Over the years, many students have failed to correctly name the files they send to me. If you also fail, there will be consequences: I will hang my head in disappointment and feel sad. This may make you feel bad.

  Seriously, I'm sorry to impose this naming requirement. The reason for it is that if you don't name the file exactly as instructed, the file will go astray on my computer.

  
  

(2) Class presentation:
I will provide detailed instructions on how to structure the presentations and give strict time limits.

The purpose of these exercises is to give you practice for real-life presentations that you will surely make throughout your careers.

Highly-successful past students have told me that this aspect of the course has proven the most valuable in advancing them through their careers.

Note that I will grade you more on how you treat your fellow students' presentations than on your own presentation. You should plan to pay attention to the other presentations, of course, and also to pose good questions and provide constructive feedback following the presentations.

For the final presentation, students will be evaluated on substance and style. Regarding style, I place special emphasis on rhythm, so students should prepare to speak at a measured pace with several dramatic pauses.

(3) Long writing assignment (rough drafts due April 15, final draft due May 7):
The ultimate requirement of this course is to write a junior paper. If you complete each of the short assignments successfully, you will have all the pieces you need to write the full paper. The outline of your paper's sections will be similar to what you have for your abstract and presentation: (1) Introduce the research question and your argument. (2) Present the background literature and develop your theory. (3) Present some examples illustrating your argument as well as some descriptive data. (4) Describe your method for analyzing the data and your results. (5) Conclusion. If you were to be incredibly lucky, you could take all of the short assignments, reorganize them, and staple them together – and that would be your paper. No one will be that lucky, but at least your short assignments will contribute to the various sections of your paper.




Course book:

Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Software:


The course will make extensive use of Stata. Unlike other universities, which provide free personal copies of Stata for all students on their personal computers, Princeton has choosen to provide the software only on library computers and through a cumbersome Nobel Linux Cluster service. These options are not convenient. Click here for more information.

If you are interested in purchasing your own copy of Stata, I recommend the Stata/IC. A one year license costs $125 (at this writing). (There was a 6 month option available last semester for about $45, but I can no longer find that option through the university links.) Click here for more information.

Electronic data resources useful for the course:


• The HRV Transparency Project
• The World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI)
  Before downloading data, fix the "LAYOUT" options (look toward the far left of the page, 2nd tab, next to "VARIABLES"):
  
  • Set Time to "Row," Series to "Column," and Country to "Page." Then click "Apply Changes." Then select "Download Options" (far left of page) and proceed.
    
    You may also want to change the format of "missing" data. If so, go to:
    Download Options > Advanced Options > NA Preference > Blank
• The World Bank's World Databank – the full set of WB datasets (really great!)

• AidData

• The Quality of Government Institute (QOG) – a nice resource that has merged many of the variables that you are looking for all together into one dataset!

• DD

• Polity IV

• OECD Aid Statistics (beware – this webpage is not user-friendly)

• UN Comtrade (really beware – this webpage is really not user-friendly)

• NEW FROM PRINCETON'S
  NIEHAUS CENTER FOR GLOBALIZATION AND GOVERNANCE:
  
  World Economics and Politics Dataverse
  A new queryable data resource for comparative and international political economy

Feb 4: Introduction to student research on transparency (Ch 1)

Class 1 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENTS:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 1

Shen, Elaine and Mike Sliwinski. 2015. A Clear Advantage: The Benefits of Transparency to Foreign Direct Investment. International Public Policy Review 9 (2): 26-36.
Replication materials (click here)
For a previous draft of this paper, click here (see pages 156-176).

Clore, Mathison and Michael McGrath. 2015. “The Domestic Benefits of Economic Transparency.” International Political Economy Research Lab, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.

Shambaugh, George and Elaine Shen. 2018. A Clear Advantage: The Benefits of Transparency to Crisis Recovery. European Journal of Political Economy 55:391-416.
Replication materials available on Blackboard (click here)


Krishnan, Arjun and Meghna Sinha. 2017. “The Effect of Foreign Aid on Macroeconomic Transparency: An Instrumental Variable Approach.” In Vickie Chang and James Raymond Vreeland (eds.), The Second Walsh School of Foreign Service Undergraduate Working Paper Series in International Political Economy: Transparency, Financial Flows, and Natural Resources, Washington, DC: Georgetown University. Pp.11-40.

De Santis, Viviana and Giulia Nardi Martins. 2017. “Environmental Transparency and Foreign Aid: Do Climate-Friendly Aid Donors Encourage Environmental Data Dissemination?” In Vickie Chang and James Raymond Vreeland (eds.), The Second Walsh School of Foreign Service Undergraduate Working Paper Series in International Political Economy: Transparency, Financial Flows, and Natural Resources, Washington, DC: Georgetown University. Pp.69-88.

Bisel, Olivia and Yuou Wu. 2017. “Transparency and the Effect of Natural Resources on Economic Growth.” In Vickie Chang and James Raymond Vreeland (eds.), The Second Walsh School of Foreign Service Undergraduate Working Paper Series in International Political Economy: Transparency, Financial Flows, and Natural Resources, Washington, DC: Georgetown University. Pp.107-136.

Balza, Valeria and Vickie Chang. 2017. “Remitting Transparency: Examining the Effect of Remittances on Government Accountability.” In Vickie Chang and James Raymond Vreeland (eds.), The Second Walsh School of Foreign Service Undergraduate Working Paper Series in International Political Economy: Transparency, Financial Flows, and Natural Resources, Washington, DC: Georgetown University. Pp.137-160.

Feb 11: Facets of transparency, the HRV Index, and alternative measures (Ch 2-4)

Class 2 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Key variables.* What is your primary dependent variable of interest? (What are you explaining?) What is your primary independent variable of interest? (What do you hypothesize does the explaining?) List 20 peer-reviewed publications that use your variables (10 articles for each variable).

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTERS 2-4

Copelovitch, Mark, Christopher Gandrud, and Mark Hallerberg. 2018. Financial Data Transparency, International Institutions, and Government Borrowing Costs. International Studies Quarterly 62 (1):23–41.

Feb 18: Transparency and (In)stability – The Theory (Ch 5)

Class 3 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Annotated bibliography.* Find at least 20 academic articles related to your *dependent* variable of interest. Provide a summary sentence linking the main finding of the article to your research interests.

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 5

Feb 25: How to find examples and present descriptive data (Ch 6)

Class 4 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Finding data.* Pick one of the studies you found last week and get the relevant data used. To make your life much easier, try to find an article with an available replication dataset. For your assignment, provide the mean, median, standard deviation, minimum value, and maximum value of the dependent variable.

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 6

Vreeland, James Raymond. 2008. The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (3):401-425.
Also see this lighter take on the subject: The Return of Goldilocks in...Civil War and The Three Regimes!


Cheibub, José Antonio, Jennifer Gandhi, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1-2):67-101.

Mar 4: Regression Analyses (Ch 7)

Class 5 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Example cases.* Go through the dataset from last week and pick out some interesting cases. Explain why you are choosing these cases (discuss them in terms of the distributions of your independent and/or dependent variables).

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 7

Mar 11: Why Democracies Disseminate More Data Than Autocracies (Ch 8-9)

Class 6 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Replication.* Pick one of the studies you found last week and replicate the results published using available data. This assignment will be much easier if you are working with an article with an available replication dataset.

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTERS 8-9

Mar 25: Student presentations

REQUIRED ASSIGNMENT:
POWERPOINT presentation file
(Preliminary) Presentations Rough outline: (1) Research question, (2) Hypothesis, (3) Methodology, (4) Results (if any are available), (5) Conclusion (you probably won't have one yet!)

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
none

Apr 1: Lab Session

Class 8 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Multivariate regression:* Just do it.

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
none

Apr 8: Why Autocrats Disclose (Ch 10)

Class 9 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Abstract!*
(1) Research question, (2) Hypothesis, (3) Methodology, (4) Result, (5) Conclusion (150 words)

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 10

Apr 15: Consequences of transparency (Ch 11)

Class 10 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Put it together!*
(1) abstract, (2) introduction, (3) background (remember the annotated bibliography?), (4) example cases, (5) descriptive data – provide a BAR GRAPH or equivalent, (6) multivariate results, (7) conclusion

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
Hollyer, James R., B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland. 2018. Information, Democracy, and Autocracy: Transparency and Political (In)Stability. New York: Cambridge University Press. CHAPTER 11

Apr 22: Lab Session

Class 11 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Learn from each other.* Share comments on each other's drafts

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
none

Apr 29: Student presentations

Class 12 Lecture notes (if any) - to be posted after class

REQUIRED WRITING ASSIGNMENT:
*Final Presentations* (Powerpoint or equivalent).

REQUIRED READING ASSIGNMENT:
none